My dear impertinents, dear impertinents,
François Monnier, the editorial director of the Investir newspaper, is frankly neither a conspirator nor a great revolutionary in the pay of the communist forces and in the service of the CGT, so when he gratifies us with a weekly editorial entitled “Are they all gone crazy? it makes me want to read his prose.
What does he tell his readers?
That the risk of a synchronized global recession increases.
“Xi Jinping, Vladimir Poutine and Jerome Powell lock themselves in an implacable logic of decrease. The next events in May will be decisive for the stock market”.
He is absolutely right to say that “the worst can still be avoided, but the environment continues to deteriorate. In the short term, we have to be careful”.
Certainly, except that no one seems to want to avoid the worst anymore.
Yesterday I was skimming through a few comments where some readers claimed that nuclear war was impossible because it was mutually assured destruction.
The temptation of the worst.
First of all when everyone thinks the same thing, nobody thinks anymore. Believing that mutually assured destruction is reason enough to rule out nuclear war is a very big mistake, much like the one in the old days when we thought that France risked nothing with its Maginot line.
Why will you tell me a nuclear war would be possible today?
Because nuclear power, like it or not, is no longer seen in the same way. Today some strategists think they can win a nuclear war, which raises the essential and fundamental question of what it means to win a nuclear war.
For 50 years it has been considered that no one can win a nuclear war.
If this belief were false then it would considerably change the perception of the risk of nuclear war by the populations.
Between low-power weapons, those with little radioactive fallout, between anti-missile defenses and ballistic shields, between ultra-fast first-strike weapons that leave no chance of a possible aftershock, nuclear war is not no longer seen in the same way either by the military or by politicians. Moreover, the Bush administration had caused howls in its time when it spoke of preventive strikes, including nuclear ones, in its new doctrine which dates back to 2002, that is to say 20 years now!
For the economy it is the same thing.
We might believe that it is in no one’s interest to unleash the greatest miseries and catastrophes, yet that is exactly what is happening.
Central banks are raising their rates to fight against inflation which is linked above all to a military situation in Ukraine where no one is trying to make peace and to a health situation in China where no one wants to stop the delirium of 0 Covid politics.
Raising rates a mistake in the current context!
In reality, anyone who looks objectively at the situation knows what should be done.
It would be necessary to negotiate with Russia to obtain satisfactory peace conditions for everyone. The price of energy would fall and therefore inflation significantly.
Benevolent and coordinated health policies should be negotiated with China to avoid production disruptions and logistical problems leading to shortages and inflation.
Prices would then drop significantly and we would find an acceptable level of inflation, even if permanently higher than during the 30-year deflationary period that we have just experienced and which is over.
In reality, it would be necessary to agree to share the resources, to pay them at the right price and to also share the wealth on the value chain in a more equitable way.
But we don’t want that.
Because we want to dominate.
We want to “lead the new world order” as US President Joe Biden said a few weeks ago without any ambiguity.
In any human relationship, problems arise when the father wants to tell his child how to live, the neighbor to the one next door how to do it and when you want to impose your way of seeing things and do them, then the one to whom the two options are imposed. He obeys and submits. He fights and comes into conflict.
We are there.
So yeah, they all went crazy. Intoxicated by the will of omnipotence, and when everyone goes crazy, then if the worst is never certain, the best becomes less and less certain, and the destructive impulses can take over, the situation escaping all rationality , we enter a world where everything is possible. All. Even the worst.
It is already too late, but all is not lost.
Prepare yourselves !
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