En Ukraine, des destructions estimées à 500 milliards de dollars

En Ukraine, des destructions estimées à 500 milliards de dollars

Nine billion additional euros to help devastated Ukraine: this is what the European Commission proposed on Wednesday, May 18, hoping, it says, the support of other international partners, including the members of the G7. . This sum would be guaranteed by the budget of the European Union (EU) and the Member States. Brussels is also considering the creation of a “Ukrainian Reconstruction Platform” – Rebuild Ukraine – who, “medium and long term”and with the support of the G7, the G20, third countries and international financial institutions, even cities, could coordinate aid for the reconstruction of the country, once the conflict is over.

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It is impossible to estimate precisely, at this stage, the cost of the destruction suffered by Ukraine, but it would already be around at least 500 billion dollars (478 billion euros), of which more than a fifth is for infrastructure alone. physical. The Commission is considering the – already contested – hypothesis of a new loan inspired by the recovery plan that followed the Covid-19 pandemic. Rebuild Ukraine would provide loans and grants in exchange for Kyiv’s compliance with certain criteria in the fight against corruption, respect for the rule of law and climate, environmental and other issues. With, ultimately, a possible accession of the country to the EU, despite all the difficulties and the length inherent in the enlargement process.

Significant set of difficulties

How to finance this very ambitious project? Through national contributions from member countries or third countries, deductions from existing programs, or even a revision of the 2021-2027 budget. Or fundraising in the markets on behalf of the EU. Options which all have their significant share of political difficulties and lead a member of the Council (the States) to judge that“Once again Ursula von der Leyen is racing, without learning the lessons of the difficulties already encountered in imposing an embargo on oil, or even on gas”. With caution, the Commission nevertheless insists on the fact that it only intends, at this stage, to approach the Member States to gauge their will to” go further “.

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Other avenues are just as cautiously put forward. First, a confiscation of the assets of the sanctioned Russian and Belarusian oligarchs, a priori some 30 billion euros. The President of the Council, Charles Michel, would be in favor of it, like the American administration. The German finance minister, the liberal Christian Lindner, interviewed by his country’s press, however believes that such a decision would come up against legal obstacles. The file is being examined in the Brussels institutions.

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